US Open 2026: Best Second-Round Matches to Watch - Predictions from Data and Tactics

When Novak Djokovic fell in the first round, the tennis world was shaken. But the 2026 US Open still has untold stories, and the second round promises to be where surprises continue to be written. Rain disrupted first-round matches, forcing the fourth day to feature 14 remaining first-round matches and 32 second-round matches. With many quality players unseeded due to recurring injuries, this second round will be a battle of outsiders. Among the notable matches, the clash between Ben Shelton and Hubert Hurkacz stands out for its contrasting styles. Shelton, the young American, has shown impressive serve power and aggressive baseline play. He overcame a slow start against Tallon Griekspoor, finding his rhythm to win. Hurkacz, the Pole, has returned to the top 50 after a long injury battle. He possesses a big serve and often ends points quickly, but stamina is his weakness. In a long contest, Shelton has the edge due to his endurance and fighting spirit. I have followed many of Shelton's matches, and he often wins five-set battles through sustained intensity. Prediction: Shelton wins in five sets. The match between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Karen Khachanov promises to be one of the most balanced. Auger-Aliassime, the third seed, was not convincing in the first round, dropping a set to Rinky Hijikata. However, his 17 aces show his serve remains potent. He needs to improve his break-point conversion and second-serve effectiveness against Khachanov. Khachanov, the Russian, reached the 2026 US Open semifinals and has big-stage experience. He possesses powerful groundstrokes and can hit through opponents. Yet his recent form has been inconsistent. I have noticed Khachanov often plays better at Grand Slams, and if he maintains focus, he can cause an upset. Prediction: Khachanov wins in five sets. Carlos Alcaraz, the defending champion, is rebuilding form after injury. He impressively beat Roman Safiullin, but Jaime Faria, who survived a five-set battle with Jenson Brooksby, shows resilience and good spirit. Alcaraz is the top title contender, but lack of match play could disrupt his rhythm. Faria can exploit this if he maintains confidence. I believe Alcaraz will prevail, but it won't be easy. Prediction: Alcaraz wins in five sets. Finally, the match between Gael Monfils and Learner Tien is a fascinating contest between experience and youth. Monfils, 40, in his farewell year, delivered an inspired performance against Adolfo Daniel Vallejos Alvarez. His shots, combined with his unique celebrations, created a special atmosphere. However, Tien, the 14th seed, young and fresh, easily beat Nuno Borges in the first round. I think Tien's freshness and stamina will help him overcome Monfils, who may tire after long rallies. Prediction: Tien wins in five sets. Overall, the second round of the 2026 US Open promises drama. People often look at rankings to judge, but I look at what rankings hide. Hurkacz may lose due to injury, but if he maintains stamina, Shelton will face trouble. Similarly, Alcaraz, despite being a title favorite, could be eliminated early due to post-injury inconsistency. That's why I believe in surprises. There are data that don't need to be loud, just someone patient enough to read them. The US Open is always where human limits are tested. Regardless of who wins or loses, what matters is how they face pressure. And for me, that's the most worth watching. Elite sport is the art of repetition — and breaking repetition.