Arbeloa's Fulham: xG 3.14 cannot justify three consecutive defeats

When the final whistle sounded at Craven Cottage, Alvaro Arbeloa stood in front of the cameras. “I am very confident. We lost a game we should not have lost,” said the former Real Madrid defender. The numbers supported him. Fulham created an expected goals total of 3.14, while Crystal Palace managed only 1.97. They had more shots, controlled long spells and looked clearly superior, especially in the first half. But the scoreboard showed a 2-3 defeat. Football does not award points for xG. Fulham have lost all three opening matches and are 19th in the Premier League. Only promoted Coventry have a worse start. In their history, Fulham have opened a campaign with three straight defeats only three times before. In 2026/52 and 2026/21, those poor starts ended with relegation. Spanish newspaper AS called the situation a “drama” for Arbeloa. Marca ran the headline: “This is not the start to the Arbeloa era.” The pressure is now visible from Madrid to west London. The tactical process is not the main problem. Fulham created high-quality chances and played with attacking ambition. The issue is finishing and defensive focus at decisive moments. A team cannot rely on xG when it concedes three goals. Arbeloa's confidence is understandable, but history is a heavy warning. xG can also hide the real problem. A team that creates many chances and still loses often blames luck. Yet relegation candidates often have the same profile: good spells, missed chances, late defensive lapses. The next three games will be a better test. If Fulham keep creating chances but keep losing, the problem is no longer tactics. It is mentality, discipline and execution inside both penalty boxes.